May 1, 2006
Intero Real Estate Statistics
(c) copyright, View from Silicon Valley, 2006. All rights
reserved.
The e-mail and data below were forwarded by a reader who, apparently
unsolicited, received them from an Intero real estate agent. The agent was apparently spamming out this
e-mail trying to drum up business.
The reader's accompanying e-mail expressed concern 2006 sales
and inventory were building up to a repeat of 2005 and prices might soon follow?
On first review, one
might think this was true. Just like in January,
2005, both Single Family Residence and Condo/ Townhomes' "sales pending" and "listings" turned up in January, 2006.
Looking back through 2005 data, the gaps between "sales pending"
and "listings" were "negative" (more sales than listings) from February through June. In July, 2005 there was cross-over
and "listings" began to exceed "sales pending."
As an aside, this is when
we believe prices peaked. While recent stats exceed the 3Q06 peak, the nine-month gain is now only 1 -3% (here and here).
While 2006 "sales pending" increases from January to March were
similar to 2005's, the gap between "listings" and "sales pending" was solidly positive. As 2006 sales
increased, the gap remained.
Both "sales pending" and "listing" crashed in the last three
months of 2005 and started to rebound in January, 2006. However,
as 2006's "sales pending" increased, "listings" increased in parallel. There is now a solid gap of 500 to 600 more houses
listed than are selling each month in 2006 vs. 100 to 500 fewer in 2005.
Admittedly, in a Santa Clara County universe of roughly 420,000
houses, an excess 500 is not a catastrophe. However, after two-plus years of houses flying off the market faster
than new ones were listed, times have changed Time will tell...
As an aside, when this Intero
agent's e-mail arrived, the links at the bottom pulled up Intero's internal stats showing "new listings"
for each month through February, 2006. Shockingly, Intero showed roughly
500 more "new" listings every month(!) than sales, even during the price boom in 2005! Assuming this data is accurate,
there is some combination 6,000 missing sales and/or re-listed homes. Something is rotten in Denmark...
Clicking them today finds the links are no longer "live."
If you experiment with the URLs, you can end up with a login page for Intero real estate agents.
Repeated
requests to the Intero agent for the underlying data and/or the latest URL's remain unanswered.
Hi there!
Hope you are keeping yourself dry today! Here's just an
updated Santa Clara County Statistics. Thanks!
OH, BY THE WAY...If you know of someone who
would appreciate my services, please call me with their name & number and I will be happy
to help them. Thanks again for your referrals!
|
2004
Date |
Single Family Res. |
Condos/Townhomes |
2005/06 Date |
Single Family Res. |
Condos/Townhomes |
|
Active |
Pending |
Active |
Pending |
Active |
Pending |
Active |
Pending |
|
4/13/04 |
1872 |
2268 |
508 |
850 |
4/11/05 |
1562 |
1743 |
346 |
690 |
|
4/19/04 |
2013 |
2273 |
513 |
889 |
4/18/05 |
1622 |
1810 |
356 |
731 |
|
4/26/04 |
2081 |
2329 |
512 |
873 |
4/25/05 |
1687 |
1844 |
341 |
761 |
|
5/03/04 |
2140 |
2293 |
520 |
872 |
5/2/05 |
1747 |
1856 |
373 |
745 |
|
5/10/04 |
2210 |
2340 |
555 |
860 |
5/9/05 |
1790 |
1905 |
372 |
764 |
|
5/17/04 |
2319 |
2391 |
574 |
867 |
5/17/05 |
1945 |
1975 |
434 |
779 |
|
5/24/04 |
2340 |
2426 |
542 |
878 |
5/23/05 |
1988 |
2016 |
462 |
765 |
|
6/2/04 |
2297 |
2365 |
526 |
844 |
5/31/05 |
1840 |
2077 |
399 |
797 |
|
6/7/04 |
2362 |
2327 |
566 |
846 |
6/6/05 |
1952 |
2015 |
455 |
758 |
|
6/14/04 |
2360 |
2355 |
554 |
873 |
6/13/05 |
1955 |
2033 |
472 |
799 |
|
6/21/04 |
2321 |
2263 |
546 |
868 |
6/20/05 |
1943 |
1997 |
492 |
786 |
|
6/28/04 |
2325 |
2182 |
596 |
837 |
6/27/05 |
2011 |
1991 |
517 |
790 |
|
7/6/04 |
2235 |
2079 |
545 |
788 |
7/5/05 |
1893 |
1895 |
494 |
740 |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7/11/05 |
1937 |
1853 |
558 |
729 |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7/18/05 |
2084 |
1804 |
579 |
729 |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7/25/05 |
2051 |
1834 |
541 |
777 |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
8/1/05 |
2069 |
1791 |
550 |
714 |
|
8/16/04 |
2178 |
1942 |
517 |
764 |
8/8/05 |
2083 |
1836 |
575 |
