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June 24, 2006
India is not the new China
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We're a bit slow in getting this out, but the writer makes a number
of interesting points about both China and India and their status as off-shore out-sourcing destinations for previously US-based
jobs.
We hope you enjoy this article:
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India is not the new China; http://www.reed-electronics.com/eb-mag/article/CA6328382.html
The two economies are following different electronics development paths
By James Haughey, Reed Business Information --
Electronic Business, 5/1/2006
India is now attracting electronics hardware investments, after grabbing a major foothold in the world data processing
and call center market and leveraging that into a growing stake in software development. The Indian electronics industry is
now less than 5 percent of the size of the Chinese industry but appears poised to expand very quickly.
A word of caution to ambitious electronics executives: The development of the electronics industry will follow a distinctly
different growth path in India than in China, because the two countries are following very different economic development
models.
China's comparative advantage a decade ago was abundant cheap labor. China followed the path blazed by Japan, South Korea
and Taiwan, by focusing on low-skill, labor-intensive markets it could dominate with inexpensive products and quickly earn
foreign exchange for further manufacturing investments. This process requires subsidies for production costs to be squeezed
from rural incomes and inevitably results in sweatshop factory conditions and massive migration to urban areas.
India's advantage, compared to China's, is a surplus of educated workers. The Indian economic development plan focuses
on replacing imported goods with the domestic manufacturing of products requiring skilled labor, rather than promoting the
export of low-cost goods. For example, foreign manufacturers have already invested several billion dollars in Indian handset
production facilities, but most Indian telecom equipment is still imported. Nokia's parts suppliers are planning
to follow their customer to India in the next few years. Although no world-class fabs have yet been announced for India, Intel,
Cypress Semiconductor and perhaps other manufacturers appear to be actively exploring building a facility in India.
The Indian development process means that there will be no sweatshops, no disruptive migration to cities and few subsidies
offered to either foreign or domestic investors. There are no contract manufacturers in India trolling for business with cheap
prices enabled by government capital loans they do not expect to repay.
This explains the recent interest in Indian factory investments. It is typically more expensive to manufacture in India
than in China. The physical infrastructure (roads, ports, power) is superior in major Chinese cities, as is the industry infrastructure
(parts suppliers and assembly, test and packaging suppliers). India is generally not cost-competitive with China for low-tech
manufacturing work such as producing toys and household goods, because labor and transit costs are higher, but high-tech manufacturers
are diversifying to India for other reasons.
India offers a large and growing domestic market, access to the huge market elsewhere in south Asia and a commercial and
government environment that is both more familiar and more predictable than China's. India is also a hedge against having
too many eggs in an often frustrating—and, for many, not yet profitable—Chinese basket. Operating costs are now
rising rapidly at Chinese factories, because the supply of workers experienced in operating machinery has been exhausted in
some coastal areas.
India is not the new China. It is not and never will be the next-cheaper country to head for in search of the
lowest current production costs. Manufacturers using the "least cost" strategy are now moving operations to Vietnam and
Indonesia. And there are other Asian countries available when these two become too expensive. The South Koreans have recently
set up factories in the demilitarized zone, using North Korean labor.
However, the "Europeanness" of Indian commercial and government institutions is comfortable to foreign electronics companies.
Foreign companies can find staff and partners who speak English in India, have a modest understanding of Western cultures
and practices and know and respect commercial laws that are similar to those in the United States, Europe and Japan. Potential
partners have experience in a market economy. India has had these characteristics for many decades but has actively sought
foreign investment for only a few years, since it made a break with its socialist past.
Looking past today's cost premium for Indian operations, manufacturers see a bright future in India just as they did in
China a decade ago. As in the case of China, they believe that the first U.S., European and Japanese companies to master India's
unique operating environment and domestic customer preferences will have a long-term competitive advantage.
INDIA'S 2004 RANK IN THE WORLD* ELECTRONICS MARKET
|
Exports (millions of $) |
Imports (millions of $) |
Surplus (+)(-) Deficit |
| China |
187,966 |
203,169 |
-15,203 |
| U.S. |
170,569 |
240,727 |
-70,158 |
| Japan |
143,016 |
85,369 |
57,647 |
| Singapore |
133,145 |
98,955 |
34,190 |
| Europe |
126,049 |
180,479 |
-54,430 |
| South Korea |
107,030 |
58,409 |
48,621 |
| Taiwan |
83,451 |
63,333 |
20,118 |
| Malaysia |
78,652 |
65,952 |
12,700 |
| Philippines |
39,100 |
29,433 |
9,667 |
| Mexico |
38,905 |
46,595 |
-7,690 |
| India |
1,450 |
9,000 |
-7,550 |
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