(c) copyright, View from Silicon Valley, 2006. All rights reserved.
-----Original
Message----- From: VFSV Sent: Monday, September 04, 2006 8:08 PM To: <SMugrabi@RedHerring.com> Subject:
Red Herring article- comments
Hello:
I just found your August 22, 2006-dated article in Red Herring. I started out thinking this was going to be a great article but became more and more disenchanted with
the reporting as I read through it.
www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com tracks jobs here in Silicon Valley quite closely
and we were surprised to read, "Software and creative services jobs led the pack, with increases of close to 4 percent each,
according to statistics gathered by Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network. Much of the job creation comes from small- and
medium-sized businesses. "
Did you realize this was only 2005 data? (Per JV:SVN's website today)
Do you
understand how they extracted the job details from the state-level data? (If so, can you explain it?)
FYI, we track
CA Labor Market Info (LMI) and find such detailed claims impossible to prove from the actual underlying data. For example: +CA's
only classification with the word "software" in it is "software publishers" of which there are only ~41,000 in the whole state.
+"creative"
does not appear anywhere in the LMI database of jobs
+we did find "Internet Service Providers, Web Search P" but there
were only ~50K in state-wide, including several sub-classifications. FYI, the Jan to Dec 2005 change was +2,200 statewide
(or +800 Jul -Dec, 2005, then Jan to Jul 2006 change was only +1,300).
If Santa Clara County added 4% (actually 3.576%) software plus 4% (actually 3.811%) "creative" jobs
here, at the same rate as "Silicon Valley cities" as a whole, this implies we should have gained 4,211 jobs. Since the
county instead lost -7.300 jobs y-o-y net, we really lost -11,511 jobs, partially offset if the two "wins" they cited are
somehow accurate.
July
1995 2005 net Employment 797,800 784,400
-13,400 Labor Force 846,600 821,300 -25,300
Or, if you want to you use data which is not
already a year old:
July 1996
2006 net Employment 833,700 776,100 -57,600 Labor Force
879,000 816,500 -62,500
Doesn't it seem impossible to think adding whatever else they
consider to be "Silicon Valley Cities" would turn Santa Clara County's -13,400 jobs since 1995 into +60,000? (Although,
looking at 2006 data, one can imagine why they may be dragging their feet on updating from 2Q-2005/1995 data...)
We
also have trouble with, "Add to the mix the fact that base prices aren’t climbing at nearly the rate local residents
had come to expect, and the result is that some sellers are taking down their “for sale” signs.
The situation,
local brokers say, is comparable to 1992, when homeowners were holding on to properties until the prices began to rise again.
This that has left newcomers out in the cold, said Richard Calhoun, a real estate agent with Creekside Realty in San Jose,
California."
We also track this data also (http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id252.html) and find total listings in Santa Clara County rose +101% from January to August. The problem for
buyers is not lack of supply. In our opinion, it's lack of affordability and, more importantly, lack of expectations
prices will continue to rise. (The county median price is now -$48K over the last three weeks of DQ numbers: http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id125.html)
And by the way, did you ask anyone at SlingMedia how many employees they have in Silicon Valley?
Or what percentage of their engineers (software or creative or otherwise) live in India? (http://www.slingmedia.com/us/jobs/)
If you can point out where we are wrong on any of these points, we would love to hear it.
Regards, www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com
-----Original
Message----- From: smugrabi@redherring.com Sent: Tuesday, September 05, 2006 7:57 AM To: VFSV Subject: Re: Red
Herring article- comments Thanks for reading Red Herring!
Sunshine K. Mugrabi
-----Original Message----- From:
VFSV Sent: Tuesday, September 05, 2006 8:43 AM To: smugrabi@redherring.com Subject: Fw: Red Herring article- comments
Thank
you for the response.
I was thinking you would make some argument about why you didn't really get so many hard facts
wrong?
--------------- The reporter responded to our 8:08pm our initial inquiry before 8:00am the next morning.
The follow-on challenge was never answered.
Apparently it's OK at Red Herring magazine when they report inaccurate,
or at least unsubstantiated, facts? Admittedly, part of this lies at the feet of the cheerleaders over at Silicon Valley
Network. Normally, we could rely on the independent press to distinguish wishful thinking from actual facts.
The
obvious inference here is Red Herring is not part of the independent press.
* * * * The above is not intended
as advice to buy, sell or hold any stock, bond, real estate nor any other financial product or service. Buy and sell at your
own risk (just like we do.)
