|
|
 |
|
|
|
September 22, 2006
The Last 30 days (Sept'06
Edition)
(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2006. All rights reserved.
Are we in the
last days of the Silicon Valley real estate boom? It's impossible to say with certainty but one way to gain insight
is looking at the numbers.
Back in March
(2006) we documented median house prices in Silicon Valley
make most of their annual increases from February to April. We found median
prices over the six months
starting July showed changes of
+0.0% (2003), +1.6% (2004) and -0.9% (2005) over the last three years.
Never mind the history lesson, how are prices
doing NOW?
Wouldn't you know, we just happen to
have numbers through August, 2006:
Median +/-$
2003 2004 2005 2006
January
-$4K -$47K -0- +$1K
February
+$7K +$52K +$22K +$17K
March -$10K +$39K +$33K +$12K
April
+$15K +$11K +$17K -$10K
May -$4K
+$15K +$8K +$27K
June
+$29K +$9K +$15K +$15K
July -$24K -$9K -$5K
-$20K
August
+$17K -0- +$14K -$25K <--
+$17K YTD
September -$3K
+$5K -$9K
October
+$10K +$5K +$9K
November -0-
-0- +$1K
December -0-
+$10K -$15K
Total
+$43K +$90K +$90K
To put +$17K into perspective, let's look at YTD numbers for the last four years:
YTD +/-$
2003 2004 2005 2006
thru August +$26K +$70K +$104K +$17K
YTD 2006 is distinctly weaker than 2004 or 2005.
Building on an item we started a couple months ago, let's compare YTD volume .
Resales
Sold 2003 2004 2005
2006
August 2,165 1,967 1,878 1,371
YTD 12,950 15,729 14,114
10,660
The
monthly realtors' blurb only compares current volume to last month and last year. To make thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago"
or "y-o-2y":
Resale
Units 2003 2004 2005 2006 y-o-y y-o-2y
August 2,165 1,967 1,878 1,371 -27.0% -30.3%
YTD
10,785 13,762 12,236 9,289 -24.1% -32.5%
We don't have complete data but let's also look at DataQuick's total listings:
2006:
January 12 1,687
February 9 1,818
March 9
2,103
April
9 2,194
May 7 2,606
June 8 2,974
July 6 3,185
August 10 3,389
September 7 3,401 (+102% YTD)
DQ claims to cover county-wide single-family
home resales. A county-wide MLS search, excluding condos, turns up 4,081, or 20% more homes.
Breaking down
the details:
Peak Since
All Homes Current Peak Date Peak
y-o-y
Santa Clara Co. $670K $690K Jul26'06 -2.9% +1.7%
San Mateo Co. $755K $775K Jul20'05 -2.6% -2.0%
Santa Cruz Co. $701K $720K May26'05 -2.6%
-3.5%
Resale Homes
Santa Clara Co. $725K $772K Jul20'06 -6.1% +2.8%
San Mateo Co.
$800K $830K Aug11'05 -3.6% +1.9%
Santa Cruz Co. $742K $775K Nov04'05 -4.3% -2.3%
San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much
more volatile than Santa Clara County. They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County
on a regular basis.
* * * * *
Re-formatting
the tables, the "All Homes" y-o-y figures are:
SantaClara SanMateo
SantaCruz
County County
County
Dec'05 14.8%
12.5% 17.4%
Jan 15.5% 8.2%
13.5%
Feb 14.2% 6.4% 12.6%
Mar 10.2% 3.4%
8.0%
Apr 6.3%
-0.1% 11.5%
May 7.0% 3.4%
8.3%
June
4.7% 2.6% 0.0%
July
3.9% -0.1% -3.6%
August* 1.7% -2.0%
-3.5%
Running the same y-o-y
numbers for Resale Homes:
SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
County County
County
Dec'05 16.5%
10.7% 10.9%
Jan 13.6% 10.8%
4.7%
Feb 13.0% 5.7% -0.3%
Mar 10.6% 3.8%
3.8%
Apr 5.1%
2.5% 10.8%
May 9.4% 2.0%
5.7%
June 9.2%
1.9% 5.7%
July 7.1% 1.9% 1.2%
August
2.8% 1.9% -2.3%
Bottom Line:
It took a bit longer than we expected but
Santa Clara y-o-y returns are now below T-bills. San Mateo and Santa Cruz have tipped over into actual negative
numbers.
Anybody who claims to "know" when this trend
will reverse is hoping and spinning rather than reading and thinking.
* * * * *
The above is not intended as advice to buy,
sell or hold any stock, bond, real estate nor any other financial product or service. Invest at your own risk.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|