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December 18, 2006
The Last 30 days (Dec'06 Edition)
(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2006. All rights reserved.
House
prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring. Since 2003, prices after June 1 showed a median change of:
2003: +0.0%
2004: +1.8%
2005: -0.7%
2006: -4.6% (= -$35.5K)
So how are prices
doing lately?
Updating the "The
Next 60 days'" table for "Total Resale Homes":
Median +/-$ 2003
2004 2005 2006
January
-$4K -$47K -0-
+$5K
February +$7K
+$52K +$22K +$17K
March -$10K +$39K +$33K +$13K
April
+$15K +$11K +$17K -$10K
May -$4K
+$15K +$8K +$30K
June +$29K +$9K +$15K
+$15K
July
-$24K -$9K -$5K -$20K
August
+$17K -0- +$14K
-$25K
September
-$3K +$5K -$9K +$10K
October
+$10K +$5K +$9K -$1.5K
November
-0- -0- +$1K +1K
<== +29.5K YTD
December -0-
+$10K -$15K
Total +$43K +$90K +$90K
(Some from prior months were revised due to updated data.)
Comparing YTD numbers for the last four years, we find
YTD thru 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nov.
+$33K +$80K +$105K +$29.5K
Let's peek at YTD volume over the last few years.
Resales
Sold 2003 2004 2005 2006
November
1,629 1,706 1,494 1,161
YTD 18,471 21,053 18,954 14,162
Y-o-y volume was negative for
the 22nd straight months (since December, 2004) and 25th out of the last 26 months.
The
monthly realtors' blurb focuses on current volume
and price vs. last year (y-o-y). To make
thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" or "y-o-2y":
Resale
Units 2003 2004 2005 2006 y-o-y y-o-2y
November
1,629 1,706 1,494 1,161 -22.3% -31.9%
YTD 18,471 21,053 18,954 14,162 -25.3% -32.7%
Part of the rationale for ignoring
y-o-y (and even y-o-2y) volume is the claim there aren't enough single-family houses for sale. Fortunately, we have
data here also:
DQ MLS
January 12 1,687
February 9 1,818
March 9
2,103
April
9 2,194
May 7 2,606
June 8 2,974
July 6 3,185
August 10 3,389
September 7 3,401 4,201
October 5 3,389 3,899
(DQ= +100.9% YTD)
November 7 3,070 3,496
(DQ= +82.0% YTD)
December
6 2,571 2,843 (DQ= +52.4% YTD)
MLS data is pulled within a day or two of this missive's creation
(meaning the it lags DQ's "as of" date ~10 days).
Breaking down
the details:
Peak Since
All Homes
Current Peak Date Peak y-o-y
Santa Clara Co.*$673K $690K Jul26'06 -2.5% +2.0%
San Mateo Co.** $740K $775K Jul20'05 -4.5% -1.3%
Santa Cruz Co.**$675K $720K May26'05 -6.3% -8.5%
*= through November 27
**= through November 17
Resale Homes
Santa Clara Co. $735K
$772K Jul20'06 -4.8% +2.1%
San Mateo Co.#
$797K#
$830K Aug11'05 -4.0% +1.3%
Santa Cruz Co. $724K $775K Nov04'05 -6.6% -3.3%
#= weekly numbers were $803K/Nov.03,
$797K/Nov.14, $789/Nov.17; Did this number really reverse direction in the last 13 days of November?
San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much
more volatile than Santa Clara County. They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County, on a regular basis.
* * * * *
"All Homes"
y-o-y:
SantaClara SanMateo
SantaCruz
County County
County
Dec'05 14.8%
12.5% 17.4%
Jan 15.5% 8.2%
13.5%
Feb 14.2% 6.4% 12.6%
Mar 10.2% 3.4%
8.0%
Apr 6.3%
-0.1% 11.5%
May 7.0% 3.4%
8.3%
June
4.7% 2.6% 0.0%
July 3.9% -0.1% -3.6%
August 1.7% -2.0% -3.5%
Sept.
2.3% -2.0% 3.2%
Oct. 2.0%
-1.8% 0.0%
Nov.
2.0% -1.3% -8.5%
SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
County County
County
Dec'05 16.5%
10.7% 10.9%
Jan 13.6% 10.8%
4.7%
Feb 13.0% 5.7% -0.3%
Mar 10.6% 3.8%
3.8%
Apr 5.1%
2.5% 10.8%
May 9.4% 2.0%
5.7%
June 9.2%
1.9% 5.7%
July 7.1% 1.9% 1.2%
August
2.8% 1.9% -2.3%
Sept. 4.3% -1.8% 1.1%
Oct.
2.7% 0.0%
-4.2%
Nov. 2.1% 1.3%
-3.3%
Bottom Line:
This web site
exists because of the truth behind the old adage about how one can deceive people with, "Lies, damn lies and statistics."
Until further
notice, the above will be offered without commentary, editorial, ranting, raving nor even smarmy sarcasm. (Of course,
we also reserve the right to change our mind.)
* * * * *
The above is not intended as advice to buy,
sell or hold any stock, bond, real estate nor any other financial product or service. Invest at your own risk.
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