View from Silicon Valley
The Last 30 days (Jan'07 Edition)
Home
Santa Clara Co. median (updated Sep 6th)
San Mateo Co. median
Santa Cruz Co. median
Santa Clara Co. stats (updated Aug23)
SEMI B:B to Jul'08 (updated Aug30)
SIA Data '04 -Jun'08 (updated Aug15)
Wafer area vs.SIA$ 2Q08(updated Aug30)
VC Funding -4Q07 (updated Apr27)
SV Stats (Updated!)
Links
About Us
 
January 19, 2007 
 
The Last 30 days (Jan'07 Edition) 
 
(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2007.  All rights reserved.
 
 
 
House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring.  Since 2003, prices after June 1 showed a median change of:
 
2003:   0.0% 
2004: +1.8%
2005:  -0.7%
2006:  -7.8%  (= -$60K!!)
 
So how are prices doing lately?
 
In short, Santa Clara County ended 2006 on a very weak note.  December was so bad that it brought the YTD gain all the way down to only +$5K.
 
 
Updating the "The Next 60 days'" table for "Total Resale Homes":
 
Median +/-$   2003    2004    2005    2006
January       -$4K   -$47K     -0-    +$5K
February      +$7K   +$52K   +$22K   +$17K 
March        -$10K   +$39K   +$33K   +$13K 
April        +$15K   +$11K   +$17K   -$10K 
May           -$4K   +$15K    +$8K   +$30K
June         +$29K    +$9K   +$15K   +$15K
July         -$24K    -$9K    -$5K   -$20K
August       +$17K    -0-    +$14K   -$25K
September     -$3K    +$5K    -$9K   +$10K
October      +$10K    +$5K    +$9K    -$1.5K
November       -0-    -0-     +$1K     +1K
December       -0-   +$10K   -$15K   -$24.5K <== +$5K YTD
Total        +$43K   +$90K   +$90K    +$5K
 
 
YTD numbers for the last four years are:
 
YTD thru   2003    2004    2005    2006 
Dec.      +$47K  +$137K   +$90K   +$10K
 
 
Let's peek at YTD volume over the last few years. 
 
Resales Sold  2003    2004    2005   2006
December     1,902   1,681   1,401  1,167*
YTD         20,373  22,734  20,355 15,299
 
*= as of December 27
 
Y-o-y volume was negative for the 23rd straight month (since December, 2004) and 26th out of the last 27 months.
 
Editor's note: Please note YTD (January-to-December) can show different results than y-o-y (December-to-December).
 
To make thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" or "y-o-2y":
 
Resale Units  2003   2004   2005   2006  y-o-y    y-o-2y
December     1,902  1,681  1,401  1,167* -16.7%   -30.6%
YTD         20,373 22,734 20,355 15,299  -24.8%   -32.7%
 
*= as of December 27
 
Part of the rationale for ignoring y-o-y (and even y-o-2y) volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale.  Fortunately, we have this data also:
 
Single-family homes listed for sale 2006:
 
                           DQ        MLS
January 12  1,687
February 9  1,818
March 9     2,103
April 9     2,194
May 7       2,606
June 8      2,974
July 6      3,185 
August 10   3,389
September 7 3,401  4,201
October 5   3,389  3,899  (DQ= +100.9% YTD)
November 7  3,070  3,496  (DQ=  +82.0% YTD)
December 6  2,571  2,843  (DQ=  +52.4% YTD)
January     1,969  2,554  (DQ=  +16.7% Y-O-Y)
 
MLS data is pulled within a day or two of this missive's creation (meaning the "as of" date lags ~two weeks).
 
Breaking down the details: 
                                Peak   Since 
All Homes     Current Peak    Date    Peak     y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co. $648K  $690K  Jul26'06  -6.1%   +0.9%
San Mateo Co.   $730K  $775K  Jul20'05  -5.8%   -1.2%
Santa Cruz Co. *$680K  $720K  May26'05  -5.6%   -2.9%
 
*= thru ~December 22
 
Resale Homes
Santa Clara Co. $710K  $772K  Jul20'06  -8.0%   +1.4%
San Mateo Co.   $793K  $830K  Aug11'05  -4.5%   -1.2%
Santa Cruz Co.  $719K  $775K  Nov04'05  -7.2%   -3.6%
 
 
San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much more volatile than Santa Clara County.  They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County, on a regular basis.
* * * * *  
 
"All Homes" y-o-y:
       SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
        County     County    County    
Dec'05  14.8%      12.5%     17.4%
Jan     15.5%       8.2%     13.5%
Feb     14.2%       6.4%     12.6%
Mar     10.2%       3.4%      8.0%
Apr      6.3%      -0.1%     11.5%
May      7.0%       3.4%      8.3%
June     4.7%       2.6%      0.0%
July     3.9%      -0.1%     -3.6%
August   1.7%      -2.0%     -3.5%
Sept.    2.3%      -2.0%      3.2%
Oct.     2.0%      -1.8%      0.0%
Nov.     2.0%      -1.3%     -8.5%
Dec.     0.9%      -1.2%     -2.9%
 
"Resale Homes" y-o-y:
      SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
       County      County    County    
Dec'05  16.5%      10.7%     10.9%
Jan     13.6%      10.8%      4.7%
Feb     13.0%       5.7%     -0.3%
Mar     10.6%       3.8%      3.8%
Apr      5.1%       2.5%     10.8%
May      9.4%       2.0%      5.7%
June     9.2%       1.9%      5.7% 
July     7.1%       1.9%      1.2%
August   2.8%       1.9%     -2.3%
Sept.    4.3%      -1.8%      1.1%
Oct.     2.7%       0.0%     -4.2%
Nov.     2.1%       1.3%     -3.3%
Dec.     1.4%      -1.2%     -3.6%
 
Bottom Line:   
Reading the local news you would never suspect anything was wrong.  Or maybe it's just us who sees something "wrong" when Santa Calra County's last six months show prices are down -$60K?  (Even -$62K from the peak value.)
 
The headlines continue to proclaim growth in all things real estate. The numbers are presented as "up," even if admitting they're only up slightly.
 
The pressure is now squarely on the spring selling season to get prices moving back up.  Given the continued weak sales volume on top of the prospect for listings to bounce back, we're betting 2007 will be a "Silent Spring."
 
 
 
 * * * * *
The above is not intended as advice to buy, sell or hold any stock, bond, real estate nor any other financial product or service.  Invest at your own risk.