(c) copyright, View from Silicon Valley, 2007. All rights reserved.

It's become fashionable to ignore recent weakness in residential real estate because commercial real estate will take up the slack. Supposedly all the "hot" money in residential has moved over to commercial.

This may sound like a boring personal story. However, it's a slow month and there are some relevant underlying points I hope will become apparent.

About three years ago, I fell in with a pack of roller hockey nuts. The faces have turned over a bit but we try to play twice a week at lunch. Hockey takes longer to drive, suit up, warm up (sometimes) and play than to put in a run or weight-lifting circuit, but it's a great non-impact aerobic/anaerobic/core workout.

We're from different companies, countries, skating abilities, skill levels and experience. Even so, we quickly choose up sides and go. The games are almost always competitive and, if not, we adjust on the fly. (Basic executive skill, right?)

Silicon Valley is full of "Type A" personalities and we have our share. We compete but also congratulate the other team on good plays and bang gloves at the end. (OK, we do tend to play "one more goal" two or three or four times.)

The games at Netscape and Google may have more people or equipment but we enjoy our game.

Leaving no moment unproductive, I've twice been contacted by a (hockey) competitor to pitch a product from my company. One guy recommended me for a job within his company. I've tried to help one of the guys find a new job.

Finally, we get to the point: The key to this whole ecosystem is an empty parking lot. Any empty parking lot will do.

We changed lots a couple time for convenience of location or a bigger space. We last moved because the lot was too near one guy's offices and he didn't want management to see him still playing hockey if we happened to play until 1:15.

"Our" current lot is adjacent to a completely empty office building. Several windows are broken and boarded up. (Who knew there were boarded up windows in exalted Silicon Valley?) The side lot where we park looks like somebody dumped a pickup truck full of dirt. We regularly see municipal workers or contractors "hiding" on the side (presumably on their lunch hour too). We routinely find furniture, lumber and boxes dumped.

Except for cleaning leaves, and later olives, off the asphalt, none of this mess ever interfered with our game.

However, a few months ago we saw a guy fixing the sprinkler system. Shortly after, surveyors were on-site (we just avoided the tripod and wet orange paint). The last week or two, one corner of the building's interior had the lights on. There were no trucks outside but workers were inside laying down fresh carpet and paint.

We thought something would happen but it was still surprising when, for the first time in three years, we got kicked out of a parking lot.

As a couple of us were "gearing up" when a guy rolled up in a pick-up truck with a security company logo painted on the side. He rolled down his window and tried to command us with, "You're on private property and have to leave, now!"

We went back and forth over the sudden relevance of "private property" after 18 months of hockey but ended up at, "Because I got hired to do this." OK, the guy is just doing his job, not making policy. Time to adjust.

We reached the other guys via cell while they were enroute and quickly agreed on the previously-vacated lot. Everybody made it and we still got our game in. (You have to be adaptable in the valley, right?)

BTW, we were back near the company who was concerned about the extra 15 minutes of hockey. They are now out of business. (Who knew anybody was going under in this so-called strong economy?)

Conclusion:

Doesn't "kicked out" show the Silicon Valley economy is back? Are the statistics about R&D space really true? Everything is filling up?

Hardly. Presumably "our" building has a new owner-- but it's still empty! The buyer paid for surveyors, landscapers, paint, carpet and now security guards (to name just the costs we can readily see) but still has no tenant. If the new owner does find a paying tenant for the re-finished space, the building will still be 80% empty.

Meanwhile, there are several empty buildings near where we were kicked out. If we keep getting "kicked out," and have to go and find a new space every month, we might run out of options --in about three years.

Do you still think Silicon Valley's commercial real estate is strong?

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