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April 19, 2007 

The Last 30 days (Apr '07 Edition) 
 
(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2007.  All rights reserved.
 
 
House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring.  Since 2003, prices after June 1 showed a median change of:
 
2003:   0.0% 
2004: +1.8%
2005:  -0.7%
2006:  -7.8%  (= -$60K!!) 
2007:  TBD 
 
So how are prices doing lately?
Updating the "The Next 60 days'" table for "Total Resale Homes":
 
 
Median +/-$  2003    2004    2005    2006    2007 
January      -$4K   -$47K     -0-    +$5K    -$3K
February     +$7K   +$52K   +$22K   +$17K   +$42K 
March       -$10K   +$39K   +$33K   +$13K    +$6K
April       +$15K   +$11K   +$17K   -$10K 
May          -$4K   +$15K    +$8K   +$30K
June        +$29K    +$9K   +$15K   +$15K
July        -$24K    -$9K    -$5K   -$20K
August      +$17K    -0-    +$14K   -$25K
September    -$3K    +$5K    -$9K   +$10K
October     +$10K    +$5K    +$9K    -$1.5K
November      -0-    -0-     +$1K     +1K
December      -0-   +$10K   -$15K   -$24.5K
Total       +$43K   +$90K   +$90K    +$5K
 
Comparing YTD numbers for the last four years, we find
 
YTD thru   2003    2004    2005    2006    2007 
March      -$7K   +$44K   +$55K   +$35K   +$48K
Let's peek at YTD volume over the last few years. 
 
Resales Sold  2003    2004    2005   2006   2007 
March        1,365   1,912   1,862  1,592  1,239
YTD          4,029   4,870   4,347  3,524  3,243
The monthly realtors' blurb focuses on current volume and price vs. last year (y-o-y). To make thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" or "y-o-2y"  and "year-over-three-years-ago" or "y-o-3y": 
 
 
Units  2003   2004   2005   2006   2007  y-o-y  y-o-2y  y-o-3y  
March 1,365  1,912  1,862  1,592  1,239 -22.2%  -14.5%  -16.7%
YTD   4,029  4,870  4,347  3,524  3,243  -8.0%  -25.4%  -33.4%
 
Part of the rationale for ignoring y-o-y (and even y-o-2y, and now y-o-3y) volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale.  Fortunately, we have this data also:
               DQ   Supply   MLS   Supply
January 12  1,687   1.81x 
February 9  1,818   1.82x 
March 9     2,103   1.32x 
April 9     2,194   1.50x 
May 7       2,606   1.83x 
June 8      2,974   1.84x 
July 6      3,185   2.52x 
August 10   3,389   2.47x  
September 7 3,401   2.85x   4,201   3.52x 
October 5   3,389   2.95x   3,899   3.39x  (DQ=+100.9% YTD)
November 7  3,070   2.64x   3,496   3.01x  (DQ= +82.0% YTD)
December 6  2,571   2.20x   2,843   2.44x  (DQ= +52.4% YTD)
January     1,969   2.00x   2,554   2.60x  (DQ= +16.7% Y-O-Y) 
February 8  2,238   2.19x   2,901   2.84x  (DQ= +23.1% Y-O-Y)
March 8     2,841   2.29x   3,156   2.55x  (DQ= +50.1% Y-O-Y)
April 5     2,812           3,680          (DQ= +28.2% Y-O-Y) 
 
MLS data is pulled within a day or two of this missive's creation (meaning the "as of" date tends to lag by ~two weeks).
 
Breaking down the details: 
                                   Peak    Since 
All Homes     Current    Peak    Date     Peak   y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co. $677K     $690K  Jul26'06  -1.9%  -0.8%# 
San Mateo Co.   $720K     $775K  Jul20'05  -7.1%  -4.0% 
Santa Cruz Co. *$677K     $720K  May26'05  -6.0%  -1.5%
 
*- as of March 21
# = we continue to calculate actuals.  Effective this month, we will no longer reference the mis-reported figures.  (You can get those from the local paper.) 
 
                                  Peak    Since 
Resale Homes  Current   Peak    Date     Peak   y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co. $755K    $772K  Jul20'06  -2.2%    2.0%
San Mateo Co.   $806K    $830K  Aug11'05  -2.9%    1.4% 
Santa Cruz Co   $738.5K  $775K  Nov04'05  -4.7%    1.8%
 
 
San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much more volatile than Santa Clara County.  They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County, on a regular basis.
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"All Homes" y-o-y:
       SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
        County     County    County    
Dec'05  14.8%      12.5%     17.4%
Jan     15.5%       8.2%     13.5%
Feb     14.2%       6.4%     12.6%
Mar     10.2%       3.4%      8.0%
Apr      6.3%      -0.1%     11.5%
May      7.0%       3.4%      8.3%
June     4.7%       2.6%      0.0%
July     3.9%      -0.1%     -3.6%
August   1.7%      -2.0%     -3.5%
Sept.    2.3%      -2.0%      3.2%
Oct.     2.0%      -1.8%      0.0%
Nov.     2.0%      -1.3%     -8.5%
Dec.     0.9%      -1.2%     -2.9% 
Jan'07   0.8%      -1.3%     -2.9% 
Feb'07   4.0%       5.2%     -2.2% 
Mar'07  -0.8%      -4.0%     -1.5% 
 
"Resale Homes" y-o-y:
      SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
       County      County    County    
Dec'05  16.5%      10.7%     10.9%
Jan     13.6%      10.8%      4.7%
Feb     13.0%       5.7%     -0.3%
Mar     10.6%       3.8%      3.8%
Apr      5.1%       2.5%     10.8%
May      9.4%       2.0%      5.7%
June     9.2%       1.9%      5.7% 
July     7.1%       1.9%      1.2%
August   2.8%       1.9%     -2.3%
Sept.    4.3%      -1.8%      1.1%
Oct.     2.7%       0.0%     -4.2%
Nov.     2.1%       1.3%     -3.3%
Dec.     1.4%      -1.2%     -3.6%  
Jan'07   1.0%      -1.0%     -0.3% 
Feb'07   3.5%       1.3%     -0.35%
Mar'07   2.0%       1.4%      1.8%
 
Bottom Line:   
We got another median price bump this month.  Time will tell if 2007 will be a barn-burner for local real estate.  So far, the season in which prices are usually strong is holding up its end...

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