Median $ Value SFH 2005 -2007

View from Silicon Valley

"Median $ Value" Single-Family Homes 2005 -2007

May 07, 2007

SCC Single-Family Homes "Median Dollar Value"

We hope you are enjoying this rash of charts. We apologize if they're a bit crude but we hope their unique slices of data keeps them interesting.

Santa Clara County (SCC) Single-Family Homes (SFH) is a closely-watched statistic around here.

MSM and Wall Street feel free to constantly invent new statistics, not to mention changing benchmarks and/or mining existing data for the best possible "spin." It only seems fair if the rest of us have the same rights. All "we" lack is the raw data and time to break it down.

View From Silicon Valley is starting to fill this gap starting with this month's bone to chew: "median dollar value." Simply stated, "Median $ Value" is the implied total dollars spent when you multiply the median price by the unit volume.

The first batch of charts graphed Santa Clara County "Median $ Value" for "All Homes" in 2005, 2006 and YTD 2007. Today's batch is the same data for "Single-Family Homes."

To answer the obvious question, yes, we "get it." Such a figure is only loosely connected with the actual value. Even so, taken in aggregate, and over ~28 months of data, we believe "Median $ Value" delivers an "interesting" message. Thanks to an alert reader (thanks TP), we are working to extract "average data" and plot it within the next week or so. (Anybody aware of additional on-line sources for median and/or average data, please feel free to contact us?)

On with the charts:

The 2005 implied value of "Single-Family Homes" sold in Santa Clara County over a given four-week period peaked out at ~$1.4B (yes, billion). That's ~$350M(!) per week(!!) changing hands in single-family homes.

The 2006 implied value of "All Homes" sold in Santa Clara County over a given four-week period peaked out at just over $1.1B (yes, still billions). This is still ~$275M per week. The idea that this figure was worse than -20% compared to 2005 was reported by --- nobody.

2007's peak, so far, is the $1.02B reached last week then bounced down to $954M this week.

If $1.02B turns out to be 2007's peak, it's another -16% y-o-y dollars changing hands.

Given "The Last 30 Days" shows unit volume down y-o-y (-22%), y-o-2y ( -15%) and y-o-3y ( -16.7%), the prospects for new highs in dollars changing hands does not seem strong.

Obviously, recent all-time-highs on unit price may be less than stupendously-important, given this clearly-identified downward trend in total dollar volume.

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