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The Last 30 days (Apr '07 Data)
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May 19, 2007 
 
View from Silicon Valley-  The Last 30 days (Apr'07 data) 
 
(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2007.  All rights reserved.
 
 
 
House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring.  Since 2003, prices after June 1 showed a median change of:
 
2003:   0.0% 
2004: +1.8%
2005:  -0.7%
2006:  -7.8%  (= -$60K!!) 
2007:  TBD 
 
So how are prices doing lately?
Updating the "The Next 60 days'" table for "Total Resale Homes":
 
 
Median +/-$   2003    2004    2005    2006    2007 
January       -$4K   -$47K     -0-    +$5K    -$3K
February      +$7K   +$52K   +$22K   +$17K   +$39K 
March        -$10K   +$39K   +$33K   +$13K    +$6K
April        +$15K   +$11K   +$17K   -$10K   +$45K
May           -$4K   +$15K    +$8K   +$30K
June         +$29K    +$9K   +$15K   +$15K
July         -$24K    -$9K    -$5K   -$20K
August       +$17K    -0-    +$14K   -$25K
September     -$3K    +$5K    -$9K   +$10K
October      +$10K    +$5K    +$9K    -$1.5K
November       -0-    -0-     +$1K     +1K
December       -0-   +$10K   -$15K   -$24.5K
Total        +$43K   +$90K   +$90K    +$5K
 
Comparing YTD numbers for the last four years, we find
 
YTD thru   2003    2004    2005    2006    2007 
April      +$8K   +$55K   +$72K   +$20K   +$87K
Let's peek at YTD volume over the last few years. 
 
Resales Sold  2003    2004    2005   2006   2007 
April        1,564   2,248   1,924  1,465  1,236*
 
*= 30 days through April 23.
 
The monthly realtors' blurb focuses on current volume and price vs. last year (y-o-y). To make thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" or "y-o-2y"  and "year-over-three-years-ago" or "y-o-3y": 
 
Units  2003   2004   2005   2006  2007  y-o-y  y-o-2y  y-o-3y 
April  1,564  2,248  1,924  1,465 1,236*-15.6%  -23.9%  -34.8%
YTD    8,833  7,118  6,271  4,989 4,479 -10.2%  -28.6%  -37.1%
 
Part of the rationale for ignoring y-o-y (and even y-o-2y) volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale.  Fortunately, we have this data also:
 
Single-family homes listed for sale 2006. This month we're adding the months' supply of sales represented by the total resale listings:
 
               DQ     Change      MLS#
January 12  1,687 
February 9  1,818
March 9     2,103
April 9     2,194
May 7       2,606
June 8      2,974
July 6      3,185
August 10   3,389
September 7 3,401                4,201
October 5   3,389   +101%/YTD    3,899
November 7  3,070    +82%/YTD    3,496
December 6  2,571    +52%/YTD    2,843
January     1,969    +17%/y-o-y  2,554
February 8  2,238    +23%/y-o-y  2,901
March 8     2,841    +50%/y-o-y  3,156
April 5     2,812    +28%/y-o-y  3,680
May 3       3,332    +28%/y-o-y  4,255
 
MLS data is pulled within a day or two of this missive's creation (meaning the "as of" date tends to lag by ~two weeks).
 
Breaking down the details: 
                                 Peak    Since 
All Homes     Current  Peak    Date     Peak      y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co. $709K   $709K  Apr30'07  New Peak!  5.0% 
San Mateo Co.   $810K   $810K  Apr30'07  New Peak!  7.3%
Santa Cruz Co. *$680K   $720K  May26'06   -5.6%    -1.0%
 
*= as of April 26
 
                                 Peak    Since 
Resale Homes  Current  Peak    Date     Peak    y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co. $800K*  $800K  Apr23'07 New Peak!  9.9%
San Mateo Co.   $894K** $894K  Apr26'07 New Peak! 11.2% 
Santa Cruz Co   $767K** $775K  Nov04'05  -1.0%     2.3%
 
*= as of April 23
**= as of April 26
 
 
San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much more volatile than Santa Clara County.  They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County, on a regular basis.
* * * * *  
 
"All Homes" y-o-y:
       SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
        County     County    County    
Dec'05  14.8%      12.5%     17.4%
Jan     15.5%       8.2%     13.5%
Feb     14.2%       6.4%     12.6%
Mar     10.2%       3.4%      8.0%
Apr      6.3%      -0.1%     11.5%
May      7.0%       3.4%      8.3%
June     4.7%       2.6%      0.0%
July     3.9%      -0.1%     -3.6%
August   1.7%      -2.0%     -3.5%
Sept.    2.3%      -2.0%      3.2%
Oct.     2.0%      -1.8%      0.0%
Nov.     2.0%      -1.3%     -8.5%
Dec.     0.9%      -1.2%     -2.9% 
Jan'07   0.8%      -1.3%     -2.9% 
Feb'07   4.0%       5.2%     -2.2% 
Mar'07  -0.8%      -4.0%     -1.5%
Apr'07   5.0%       7.3%     -1.0% 
 
"Resale Homes" y-o-y:
      SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
       County      County    County    
Dec'05  16.5%      10.7%     10.9%
Jan     13.6%      10.8%      4.7%
Feb     13.0%       5.7%     -0.3%
Mar     10.6%       3.8%      3.8%
Apr      5.1%       2.5%     10.8%
May      9.4%       2.0%      5.7%
June     9.2%       1.9%      5.7% 
July     7.1%       1.9%      1.2%
August   2.8%       1.9%     -2.3%
Sept.    4.3%      -1.8%      1.1%
Oct.     2.7%       0.0%     -4.2%
Nov.     2.1%       1.3%     -3.3%
Dec.     1.4%      -1.2%     -3.6%  
Jan'07   1.0%      -1.0%     -0.3% 
Feb'07   3.5%       1.3%     -0.35%
Mar'07   2.0%       1.4%      1.8%
Apr'07   9.9%      11.2%      2.3%
 
Bottom Line:   
Volume continues to decline but median prices are popping! 
 
Time will tell if this is a sustainable leg up in local prices or the final burst to make sure everyone is fully invested (and indebted).
 
Coming soon: A "Chart version" of this missive...

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