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Has The "Bottom" Fallen Out?
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May 22, 2007
 
Has the "bottom" fallen out of the market?
 
(c) copyright, View From Silicon Valley, 2007.  All rights reserved.
 
 
 
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.  Our site traffic statistics (and ad revenue) tell us we missed the mark with recent charts but we hope this batch breaks the mold.
 
Even as sales volume remains weak, Santa Clara County median prices popped to new all-time highs over the last few weeks.    As presented earlier, volume is down year-over-year (y-o-y), year-over-two-years (y-o-2y) and year-over-three-years (y-o-3y), yet median prices are up --and up strongly!
 
Anecdotally, recent price strength is due to houses at the bottom of the food chain failing to sell, while higher-end inventory continues to turn over.  While this seems likely, particularly here where we live, is it really true?  Is the median really going up only because fewer and fewer people are able, or willing, to buy low-, or even mid-range, houses?  Has the "bottom" fallen out of the market?
 
If the anecdotes are true, the houses still changing hands should be getting bigger.  The median "price per square foot" we see each week from DataQuick, by itself, doesn't tell us much..  However, multiplying the median price by the median price per square foot yields a potentially-useful statistic: "Implied Median Size."
 
We hope you find this new statistic useful.
 
On with the charts:
scc_2005_implied_median_size_2007-05-19.jpg
scc_2006_implied_median_size_2007-05-19.jpg
scc_2007_implied_median_size_2007-05-19.jpg
The implied median size of a 2005 Santa Clara County resale home declined from 1,507 square feet to 1,469 ( -2.5%).  Given 2005 prices went form $615K to $703.5K (+14.4%), this was perhaps understandable.   As prices go up, people are forced to buy smaller houses.
 
Then in 2006, this number shrank from 1,469 to 1,449 ( -1.4%) while prices went from $703.5K to $710K ( +0.9%).  Kind of a wash when you stop and think about.
 
Now four months of 2007 median prices show a move from $710K to $800K (+12.7%!) while the size figure also increased from 1,449 to 1,578!  The size of the median house increased +8.9% while the price was up +12.7%?!?
 
Conclusion:
At risk of making a bad pun, "the 'bottom' has fallen out of the market." 
 
These numbers absolutely confirm the anecdotal reports that the top of the market is still moving while the bottom is not.
 

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