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July 22, 2007 
 
View from Silicon Valley-  The Last 30 Days (Jun'07 Data) 
 
(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2007.  All rights reserved.
 
 
Three years of shrinking sales volume calls the value of median prices into question.  Unfortunately, love it or hate it, median price is the tool we have available.
 
House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring.  Since 2003, prices in the second half of each calendar year showed a change of:
 
2003:   0.0% 
2004: +1.8%
2005:  -0.7%
2006:  -7.8%  (= -$60K!!) 
2007:  TBD 
 
So how are prices doing lately?
 
Updating our "The Last 30 Days'" table for "Total Resale Homes":
 
Median      2003    2004    2005    2006    2007 
January     -$4K   -$47K     -0-    +$5K    -$3K
February    +$7K   +$52K   +$22K   +$17K   +$39K 
March      -$10K   +$39K   +$33K   +$13K    +$6K
April      +$15K   +$11K   +$17K   -$10K   +$45K
May         -$4K   +$15K    +$8K   +$30K    +$3K
June       +$29K    +$9K   +$15K   +$15K   -$13.5K
July       -$24K    -$9K    -$5K   -$20K
August     +$17K    -0-    +$14K   -$25K
September   -$3K    +$5K    -$9K   +$10K
October    +$10K    +$5K    +$9K    -$1.5K
November     -0-    -0-     +$1K     +1K
December     -0-   +$10K   -$15K   -$24.5K
Total      +$43K   +$90K   +$90K    +$5K
 
Comparing YTD'07 numbers for the prior four years, we find
 
YTD thru   2003    2004    2005    2006    2007 
June      +$33K   +$79K   +$95K   +$62K   +$76.5K*
*- as of June 28, 2007
 
 
Let's peek at YTD'07 volume over those same four years finds:
 
Resales   2003    2004    2005   2006   2007 
June      1,643   2,450   2,175  1,617    1,210*
YTD       8,898  11,717  10,349  8,027  6,910 
 
*= 30 days through June 28
 
The monthly realtors' blurb focuses on current volume and price vs. last year (y-o-y). To make thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" ("y-o-2y")  and "year-over-three-years-ago" ("y-o-3y"): 
 
Resale
Units 2003   2004   2005   2006  2007  y-o-y  y-o-2y  y-o-3y 
Jun  1,643  2,450  2,175  1,617 1,210*-25.3%  -44.4%  -50.6%
YTD  8,898 11,717 10,349  8,027 6,910 -13.9%  -33.2%  -41.0%
*as of June 28
 
Part of the rationale for ignoring y-o-y (and y-o-2y and even y-o-3y) volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale.
 
Fortunately, we have this data also:
               DQ     Change      MLS#
January 12  1,687 
February 9  1,818
March 9     2,103
April 9     2,194
May 7       2,606
June 8      2,974
July 6      3,185
August 10   3,389
September 7 3,401                4,201
October 5   3,389   +101%/YTD    3,899
November 7  3,070    +82%/YTD    3,496
December 6  2,571    +52%/YTD    2,843
January     1,969    +17%/y-o-y  2,554
February 8  2,238    +23%/y-o-y  2,901
March 8     2,841    +50%/y-o-y  3,156
April 5     2,812    +28%/y-o-y  3,680
May 3       3,332    +28%/y-o-y  4,255
June 7      3,809    +28%/y-o-y  4,501
July 5      3,972    +25%/y-o-y  4,510
 
MLS data is pulled within a day or two of this missive's creation (meaning the "as of" date tends to lag by ~two weeks).
 
Combining the monthly DQ press release with the data tracked on our site gives a somewhat broader context:
 
                                 Peak    Since 
All Homes     Current  Peak    Date     Peak    y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co. $681K   $709K  May30'07 New Peak!  2.6% 
San Mateo Co.   $770K   $810K  Apr30'07   -4.9%    3.2%
Santa Cruz Co. *$710K   $735K  May26'06   -3.4%    1.4%
 
*= as of June 26
 
                                 Peak    Since 
Resale Homes  Current  Peak    Date     Peak   y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co *$792K   $800K  Apr23'07  -1.0%    2.9%
San Mateo Co. **$925K   $925K  Jun26'07   --     12.7% 
Santa Cruz Co **$757K   $775K  Nov04'05  -2.3%    2.3%
 
*= as of June 28
**= as of June 26
 
San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much more volatile than Santa Clara County.  They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County, on a regular basis.
* * * * *  
 
"All Homes" y-o-y:
       SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
        County     County    County    
Dec'05  14.8%      12.5%     17.4%
Jan     15.5%       8.2%     13.5%
Feb     14.2%       6.4%     12.6%
Mar     10.2%       3.4%      8.0%
Apr      6.3%      -0.1%     11.5%
May      7.0%       3.4%      8.3%
June     4.7%       2.6%      0.0%
July     3.9%      -0.1%     -3.6%
August   1.7%      -2.0%     -3.5%
Sept.    2.3%      -2.0%      3.2%
Oct.     2.0%      -1.8%      0.0%
Nov.     2.0%      -1.3%     -8.5%
Dec.     0.9%      -1.2%     -2.9% 
Jan'07   0.8%      -1.3%     -2.9% 
Feb'07   4.0%       5.2%     -2.2% 
Mar'07  -0.8%      -4.0%     -1.5%
Apr'07   5.0%       7.3%     -1.0%
May'07   4.9%       5.5%     -4.8%
Jun'07   2.6%       3.2%      1.4% 
 
"Resale Homes" y-o-y:
      SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
       County      County    County    
Dec'05  16.5%      10.7%     10.9%
Jan     13.6%      10.8%      4.7%
Feb     13.0%       5.7%     -0.3%
Mar     10.6%       3.8%      3.8%
Apr      5.1%       2.5%     10.8%
May      9.4%       2.0%      5.7%
June     9.2%       1.9%      5.7% 
July     7.1%       1.9%      1.2%
August   2.8%       1.9%     -2.3%
Sept.    4.3%      -1.8%      1.1%
Oct.     2.7%       0.0%     -4.2%
Nov.     2.1%       1.3%     -3.3%
Dec.     1.4%      -1.2%     -3.6%  
Jan'07   1.0%      -1.0%     -0.3% 
Feb'07   3.5%       1.3%     -0.35%
Mar'07   2.0%       1.4%      1.8%
Apr'07   9.9%       8.1%     -0.4%
May'07   6.2%       5.3%     -1.0%
Jun'07   2.9%      12.7%      2.3% 
 
Bottom Line:   
It's all been said already.  Unit sales volume continues to crash to multi-year lows while median prices flirt with, and even exceed, all-time highs.
 
Time will tell if "units" or "median" is telling the "truth." 
 
Next month we (finally) start getting 2H07 data!

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