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The Last 30 Days (Oct'07 Data)
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November 17, 2007 

The Last 30 Days (Oct'07 Data) 
 
(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2007.  All rights reserved.
 
 
 
House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring.  Since 2003, prices in the second half of each calendar year showed a median change of:
 
2003:  0.0%
2004: +1.8%
2005: -0.7%
2006: -7.8% (=-$60K!!)
2007: -0.5%
 
So how are prices doing lately?
 
We updated the data in our "The Last 30 Days'" table for "Total Resale Homes" and added the latest month:
 
Median      2003    2004    2005    2006    2007
January     -$4K   -$47K     -0-    +$5K    -0-
February    +$7K   +$52K   +$22K   +$17K   +$39K
March      -$10K   +$39K   +$33K   +$13K    +$6K
April      +$15K   +$11K   +$17K   -$10K   +$48K
May         -$4K   +$15K    +$8K   +$30K    -$9K
June       +$29K    +$9K   +$15K   +$15K    -$3K
July       -$24K    -$9K    -$5K   -$20K   +$15K
August     +$17K    -0-    +$14K   -$25K    -$1K
September   -$3K    +$5K    -$9K   +$10K   -$30K <-rev. from -$15K
October    +$10K    +$5K    +$9K    -$2K   +$15K
November     -0-    -0-     +$1K     +1K
December     -0-   +$10K   -$15K   -$24.5K
Total      +$43K   +$90K   +$90K    +$5K
 
Comparing YTD numbers for the last four years, we find
 
YTD thru   2003    2004    2005    2006    2007   
Oct.      +$33K   +$80K  +$104K   +$24K   +$80K
 
Next, let's peek at YTD volume over the last few years. 
 
Resales   2003    2004    2005   2006   2007 
October   1,947   1,753   1,587  1,149    686
YTD      14,677  17,380  15,582 11,630  9,665
 
The monthly realtors' blurb focuses on current volume and price vs. last year (y-o-y). To make thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" or "y-o-2y"  and "year-over-three-years-ago" or "y-o-3y": 
 
Resale
Units 2003   2004   2005   2006  2007 y-o-y  y-o-2y  y-o-3y 
Oct  1,947  1,753  1,587  1,149   686 -40.3% -56.8%  -60.9%
YTD 14,677 17,380 15,582 11,630 9,665 -16.9% -40.0%  -44.4%
 
When the monthly y-o-y unit sales figure (now over -40%) is substantially different from the YTD figure ("only" -17%), the trend is accelerating.
 
Part of the rationale for ignoring y-o-y (and even y-o-2y) volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale.
 
Fortunately, we have this data from DataQuick and also from the local Metro Listing Service (MLS) for Santa Clara County: 
 
As of...  DQ    Change     MLS#   Change     Diff.
Jan12'06 1,687
Feb 9    1,818
Mar 9    2,103
Apr 9    2,194
May 7    2,606
Jun 8    2,974
Jul 6    3,185
Aug 10   3,389
Sept 7   3,401             4,201             +23%  
Oct 5    3,389 +101%/YTD   3,899             +15%
Nov 7    3,070  +82%       3,496             +14%
Dec06'06 2,571  +52%       2,843             +11%
Jan09'07 1,969  +17%/y-o-y 2,554             +30%
Feb 8    2,238  +23%       2,901  +14%/YTD   +30%
Mar 8    2,841  +50%       3,156  +24%       +11%
Apr 5    2,812  +28%       3,680  +44%       +31%
May 3    3,332  +28%       4,255  +67%       +28%
Jun 7    3,809  +28%       4,501  +76%       +18%
Jul 5    3,972  +25%       4,510  +77%       +14%
Aug 2    4,156  +23%       4,936  +93%       +19%
Sep 7    4,701  +33%       5,097  +21%/y-o-y  +8%
Oct 11   4,866  +44%       5,222  +34%        +7%
Nov 8    4,780  +56%       5,123  +47%        +7%
 
MLS data is pulled within a day or two of creating this table (meaning the MLS "as of" date tends to be a few days later than DQ's).
 
Expressing DQ data graphically, you find:
last_30_days_dq_listings_2007-10_data_line_graph.gif
We had a little trouble with data labels.  In short, the three-month peak you can see centered around September, 2006 is +100%.  Today's listings are flirting with +200% since January, 2006. 
 
Said differently, listings increased 100% in the first nine months of 2006, then nearly another 100% in the first nine months of 2007!
 
The "peak" tables are as follows:
 
                               Peak    Since 
All Homes     Current  Peak    Date     Peak     y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co. $684K   $714K  Jun13'07   -4.2%   1.5% 
San Mateo Co.   $775K   $820K  Jun06'07   -5.5%   2.6%
Santa Cruz Co. *$665K   $735K  May26'06   -9.5%  -1.5%
 
*= as of October 26
 
                               Peak    Since 
Resale Homes  Current  Peak    Date     Peak     y-o-y 
Santa Clara Co *$790K   $817K  Aug27'07  -3.3%    6.0%
San Mateo Co. **$860K   $925K  Jun26'07  -7.0%    8.7% 
Santa Cruz Co  *$694K   $810K  Aug20'07 -14.3%   -5.6%
 
**= as of October 22
*= as of October 26
 
* * * * * *
This month, we also added graphs for year-over-year price change in "All Homes" and "Resale Homes" for all three counties:
last_30_days_y_o_y_chart_all_homes_2007_10_data.gif
last_30_days_y-o-y_chart_resale_homes_2007-10_data.gif
 
Bottom Line:
Look at the data and decide for yourself where local real estate prices are headed.

* * * *
The above and any linked article, website or advertisement are not intended as advice to buy, sell or hold any stock, bond, real estate nor any other financial product or service. Buy and sell at your own risk (just like we do.)