The Last 30 Days (Nov'07 Data)

December 26, 2007

The Last 30 Days (Nov'07 Data)

House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring. Since 2003, prices showed a median change of in the second half of each year of:

2003: 0.0%
2004: +1.8%
2005: -0.7%
2006: -7.8% (= -$60K!!)
2007: -1.5% (down from -0.6% last month)

So how are prices doing lately?

Resale

Median      2003    2004    2005    2006    2007
January     -$4K   -$47K     -0-    +$5K    -0-
February    +$7K   +$52K   +$22K   +$17K   +$39K
March      -$10K   +$39K   +$33K   +$13K    +$6K
April      +$15K   +$11K   +$17K   -$10K   +$48K
May         -$4K   +$15K    +$8K   +$30K    -$9K
June       +$29K    +$9K   +$15K   +$15K    -$3K
July       -$24K    -$9K    -$5K   -$20K   +$15K
August     +$17K    -0-    +$14K   -$25K    -$1K
September   -$3K    +$5K    -$9K   +$10K   -$30K
October    +$10K    +$5K    +$9K    -$2K +$15K
November     -0-    -0-     +$1K     +1K    -$6K
December     -0-   +$10K   -$15K   -$24.5K
Total      +$43K   +$90K   +$90K    +$5K

Comparing YTD numbers for the last four years, we find

YTD thru 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Nov. +$33K +$80K +$105K +$29.5K +$74K

Let's peek at YTD volume over the last few years.

Resales 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

November 1,629 1,706 1,494 1,161 658

YTD 16,306 19,086 17,076 12,791 10,323

The monthly realtors' blurb focuses on current volume and price vs. last year (y-o-y). To make thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" or "y-o-2y" and "year-over-three-years-ago" or "y-o-3y":

Resale

Units 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 y-o-y y-o-2y y-o-3y

Nov 1,629 1,706 1,494 1,161 658 -43.3% -56.0% -61.4%

YTD 16,306 19,086 17,076 12,791 10,323 -19.3% -39.5% -45.9%

Part of the rationale for ignoring y-o-y (and even y-o-2y) volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale.

Fortunately, we have this data from DataQuick and also from the local Metro Listing Service (MLS) for Santa Clara County:

As of...  DQ    Change     MLS#   Change     Diff.
Jan12'06 1,687                           (DQ vs.MLS)
Feb 9    1,818
Mar 9    2,103
Apr 9    2,194
May 7    2,606
Jun 8    2,974
Jul 6    3,185
Aug 10   3,389
Sept 7   3,401             4,201            +23%
Oct 5    3,389 +101%/YTD   3,899            +15%
Nov 7    3,070 +82%       3,496            +14%
Dec06'06 2,571 +52%       2,843            +11%
Jan09'07 1,969 +17%/y-o-y 2,554            +30%
Feb 8    2,238 +23%       2,901 +14%/YTD +30%
Mar 8    2,841 +50%       3,156 +24%      +11%
Apr 5    2,812 +28%       3,680 +44%      +31%
May 3    3,332 +28%       4,255 +67%      +28%
Jun 7    3,809 +28%       4,501 +76%      +18%
Jul 5    3,972 +25%       4,510 +77%      +14%
Aug 2    4,156 +23%       4,936 +93%      +19%
Sep 7    4,701 +33%       5,097 +21%/y-o-y +8%
Oct 11   4,866 +44%       5,222 +34%        +7%

Nov 8 4,780 +56% 5,123 +47% +7%

Nov 29 4,596 +79% 4,642 +63% +1%

MLS data is pulled within a day or two of creating this table (meaning the MLS "as of" date tends to be a few days later than DQ's).

Peak Since

All Homes Current Peak Date Peak y-o-y

Santa Clara Co. $678K $714K Jun13'07 -5.0% 0.7%

San Mateo Co. $780K $820K Jun06'07 -4.9% 4.1%

Santa Cruz Co. $674.5K $735K May26'06 -8.2% 1.3%

Peak Since

Resale Homes Current Peak Date Peak y-o-y

Santa Clara Co $799K $817K Aug27'07 -2.2% 8.8%

San Mateo Co. $820K $925K Jun26'07 -11.4% 8.0%

Santa Cruz Co $707.5K $810K Aug20'07 -12.7% 1.3%

* * * * *

"All Homes" y-o-y:

SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz

County County County

Dec'05 14.8% 12.5% 17.4%

Jan 15.5% 8.2% 13.5%

Feb 14.2% 6.4% 12.6%

Mar 10.2% 3.4% 8.0%

Apr 6.3% -0.1% 11.5%

May 7.0% 3.4% 8.3%

June 4.7% 2.6% 0.0%

July 3.9% -0.1% -3.6%

August 1.7% -2.0% -3.5%

Sept. 2.3% -2.0% 3.2%

Oct. 2.0% -1.8% 0.0%

Nov. 2.0% -1.3% -8.5%

Dec. 0.9% -1.2% -2.9%

Jan'07 0.8% -1.3% -2.9%

Feb'07 4.0% 5.2% -2.2%

Mar'07 -0.8% -4.0% -1.5%

Apr'07 5.0% 7.3% -1.0%

May'07 4.9% 5.5% -4.8%

Jun'07 2.6% 3.2% 1.4%

Jul'07 2.2% 3.9% 5.9%

Aug'07   4.5%       3.9%      2.6%
Sep'07   2.2%       3.9%    -14.5%
Oct'07   1.5%       2.6%     -1.5%

Nov'07 0.7% 4.1% 1.3%

"Resale Homes" y-o-y:

SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz

County County County

Dec'05 16.5% 10.7% 10.9%

Jan 13.6% 10.8% 4.7%

Feb 13.0% 5.7% -0.3%

Mar 10.6% 3.8% 3.8%

Apr 5.1% 2.5% 10.8%

May 9.4% 2.0% 5.7%

June 9.2% 1.9% 5.7%

July 7.1% 1.9% 1.2%

August 2.8% 1.9% -2.3%

Sept. 4.3% -1.8% 1.1%

Oct. 2.7% 0.0% -4.2%

Nov. 2.1% 1.3% -3.3%

Dec. 1.4% -1.2% -3.6%

Jan'07 1.0% -1.0% -0.3%

Feb'07 3.5% 1.3% -0.35%

Mar'07 2.0% 1.4% 1.8%

Apr'07 9.9% 8.1% -0.4%

May'07 6.2% 5.3% -1.0%

Jun'07 2.9% 12.7% 2.3%

Jul'07 6.8% 6.8% -0.8%

Aug'07 12.6% 6.8% 6.6%
Sep'07 7.2% 1.1% -6.7%

Oct'07 6.0% 8.7% -5.6%

Nov'07 8.8% 8.0% 1.3%

Bottom Line:
It's late and I'm tired. Study the data and decide for yourself what it means...