(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2008. All
rights reserved.
House
prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring.Since 2003, prices showeda median change of in
the second half of each year of:
We've
been expressing this information as follows:
This
table makes it a bit easier to observe what we think is real news. Recent price drops have now wiped out not
only 2007's gains, but also the slight postive in 2006 and also portions of gains all
the way back to April -May, 2005.
Keep
in mind, this is using media price statistics. The statistic widely reviled for implying increased house prices
because it "misses" the loss of sales in low-end houses. The standard which fails to reflect reality for
those without $2M to spend on a house. Even the over-inflated median sales price now shows 33+
months with no net gain in house prices.
Comparing January
numbers for the last four years, we find:
We predict this is the year serious thinkers, as opposed the real estate and political foofs, will
starting wondering if it really is safe to buy. If so, we submit the relevant comparison year is 2004. In our
estimation, this was when the kool-aid of low rates and "sure thing" over-rode the common sense and the laws of economics.
For whatever our opinion is worth, as long as prices above 2004 levels, they're still suffering
from the hangover induced by cheap money and "can't lose" flippers.
It's a new year, so let's invent another new statistic. In addition to "year-over-year"
(y-o-y) and "year-over-two-years-ago" ("y-o-2" ) lets start using "year-over-four-years-ago" or ("y-o-4") :
Part of the rationale for ignoring y-o-y (and even y-o-2y)
volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale.
Fortunately, we have this data from
DataQuick and also from the local Metro Listing Service (MLS) for Santa Clara County:
As of... DQ Change MLS# Change
Diff. Jan12'06 1,687 (DQ
vs.MLS) Feb 9 1,818 Mar 9 2,103 Apr 9 2,194 May
7 2,606 Jun 8 2,974 Jul 6 3,185 Aug 10 3,389 Sept
7 3,401 4,201
+23% Oct 5 3,389 +101%/YTD 3,899
+15% Nov 7 3,070 +82% 3,496
+14% Dec06'06 2,571 +52% 2,843
+11% Jan09'07 1,969 +17%/y-o-y 2,554
+30% Feb 8 2,238 +23% 2,901 +14%/YTD +30% Mar 8 2,841
+50% 3,156 +24%
+11% Apr 5 2,812 +28% 3,680 +44% +31% May 3 3,332 +28% 4,255
+67% +28% Jun
7 3,809 +28% 4,501 +76%
+18% Jul 5 3,972 +25% 4,510 +77% +14% Aug 2 4,156
+23% 4,936 +93%
+19% Sep 7 4,701 +33% 5,097 +21%/y-o-y +8% Oct 11 4,866
+44% 5,222 +34% +7%
Nov 8 4,780 +56% 5,123 +47%
+7%
Nov 29 4,596 +79% 4,642
+63% +1%
Jan 10 4,145 +111% 4,699
+84% -12%
Feb 7 4,529 +102%
5,008 +73% -29%
MLS data is pulled within a day or two of creating this table (meaning the MLS "as of" date tends to be a few days later than DQ's).
Peak Since
All HomesCurrent Peak Date Peak y-o-y
Santa Clara Co.$639K $714K Jun13'07-10.5% -3.2%
San Mateo Co.$675K $820K Jun06'07-17.7% -8.2%
Santa Cruz Co.*$547K$735K May26'06-25.6% -17.7%
*= data thru Jan.28
Peak Since
Resale Homes*CurrentPeak Date Peak y-o-y
Santa Clara Co$682K$817K Aug27'07 -9.5% -3.6%
San Mateo Co.$767K$925K Jun26'07-16.9%-1.7%
Santa Cruz Co$577K$810K Aug20'07-18.1% -10.4%
*= data thru Jan.28
San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much
more volatile than Santa Clara County. They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County, on a regular basis.
In
the interest of keeping this short, we were going to dropping the y-o-y price charts. Then we noticed the sizes
of the changes! Maybe we'll drop them next month. (Maybe there is demand for this data as a premium
feature?)
